Title: Online Shifting Under the Low-Value Duty Exemption Rule? Import Tariffs and International Retail E-commerce

Speaker: Prof. Tang Lixin, Jinan University

Time: Friday, May 8, 2026, 16:00-17:30

Venue: Room A1148, New Main Building, Xueyuan Road Campus

Registration: Free admission. No reservation required.

Abstract:

This paper examines how US tariff increases during the 2018–2019 US–China trade war affected international e-commerce under the low-value duty exemption rule, which exempts low-value imports from tariffs. Using parcel-level data from a major logistics company, the paper finds that a 10 percentage-point increase in tariff rates leads to a 3% increase in duty-exempt e-commerce imports in a panel regression and a 7% increase in a long-difference specification. Based on these estimates, the trade war increased US e-commerce imports by 5.3%–13.5%. Although this effect is economically significant, it is modest relative to the overall growth of 152% in US e-commerce imports between 2017 and 2019. Further analysis shows that the response is stronger in zip codes with higher population density but does not vary significantly with income level or racial composition.

About the Speaker:

Tang Lixin is a tenured full professor and doctoral supervisor at the Institute for Economic and Social Research (IESR), Jinan University. He received his Bachelor of Science in Economics, Mathematics and Physics, Summa Cum Laude from Bates College (USA) in 2010, and earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Maryland, College Park in 2015. During his doctoral studies, he was advised by Professor Nuno Limão, a renowned expert in international trade policy.

His research fields include international economics and development economics, focusing on the impact of trade tariffs and the introduction and economic effects of new technologies (such as online shopping platforms and industrial robots).

Editor: Liu Tingting